According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Greece has virtually no growth to look forward to for the coming few decades. The country has a massive “youth deficit” and the young people that do exist are leaving to avoid the ongoing economic recession and austerity regime. The population is stagnant (not growing) and the country has a significant trade deficit, all of which make material GDP growth even more unlikely.
With all the bad news, you would expect massive social unrest. Indeed, Greece has had significant protests and demonstrations in recent years but one would’ve expected more, given the situation. The reason social unrest has not been worse is because the population has a small proportion of young people, and older people don’t protest as much. That will continue for the coming decades so we can expect a reasonably stable living environment along the way.
Like much of Europe, Greece has a long life expectancy and an old median age. In this case, the median age is pushed even higher by the youth exodus in recent years. Between 2010 and 2050, the population is expected to grow just 2% while the global population surges 34% during the same time period. Greece also has an 8% trade deficit which is likely to get worse before it gets better. It all amounts to a very difficult period for Greek citizens.
Greece has one of the largest “youth deficits” among all the nations studied with this model, topped only by Germany, Italy and Japan. The current austerity measures are exasperating the situation because young people are leaving the country in search of more favorable economic conditions. Meanwhile, the large number of older retired citizens is straining pubic resources through entitlement programs. It will be years before new economic activity starts to fill the massive gap left behind by austerity measures and entitlement reform.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Greece at conferences and business events in Athens or other Greek destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Greece above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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