According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Saudi Arabia will enjoy robust growth between 2010 and 2050. There are a number of factors that contribute to that assessment including an exploding population and a massive trade surplus driven by oil exports. The population contributes a lot to GDP via consumer spending and the money generated from oil sales will allow the Saudi royal family to build infrastructure to support the country’s growth.
Despite the expected economic growth, Saudi Arabia will likely see some political volatility and social unrest along the way. Social unrest is highly correlated with a “youth bulge” and Saudi Arabia certainly has a significant baby boom under way. The population is developing quickly (driven by the internet, social media, economic expansion and eGovernment initiatives) so the current baby boom will completely reverse by 2050, resulting in a “youth deficit” at that time. But for now, the young population will continue to protest and demonstrate about the inequalities they perceive in their lives.
The graphic below is quite fascinating. Saudi Arabia has a very young median age, pulled down by the huge numbers of children in the country. The high fertility rate means the population will grow by 57% between 2010 and 2050 and that will translate into a higher GDP as those people all purchase food, clothing, shelter and energy. Saudi Arabia also has a massive trade surplus because of their energy sector. Oil production is actually expected to recede in the years ahead but rising prices could easily maintain the total economic contribution.
The dramatic reversal of the current baby boom by the year 2050 is interesting in the graphic below. Fertility rates are inversely correlated with social development and education, and the Saudi population is developing quickly these days. It’s also interesting to note that consumer spending only accounts for 30% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s the lowest of all the countries evaluated on this model. The equivalent figure is 34% in China. Such low figures reflect an export driven economy and the importance of the industrial foundation and capital infrastructure within the country.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Saudi Arabia at conferences and business events in Riyadh, Jeddah or other Saudi destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Saudi Arabia above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
All of the countries covered by the economic forecasting model are ranked below. They are each linked to the country’s respective page, so please feel free to explore other countries you might be interested in.
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Nigeria India Egypt China Saudi Arabia Pakistan Colombia Australia UAE Turkey Argentina South Africa Canada USA Brazil UK Russia France Germany Spain Greece Italy Japan |
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Pakistan Egypt South Africa Colombia Brazil Turkey India Saudi Arabia Argentina Nigeria USA Japan France UK China Greece Canada UAE Australia Italy Russia Spain Germany |
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