According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Turkey will have moderate growth between 2010 and 2050. Over the past 20 years, Turkey has looked to the Eurozone for economic growth, and they have been making slow progress towards full membership along the way. But in recent times, the Middle East is developing quickly (especially the GCC countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar) so Turkey has options for economic development in that direction as well. If there is any country covered by this model that will outperform its predicted growth forecast, it will be Turkey. It is perfectly situated between Europe, North Africa and the Middle East and will undoubtedly benefit from the accelerated development taking place throughout the latter two regions.
There will, however, be a few bumps on the road. Turkey has been staunchly secular for a long time, until the mid-90s that is. About 97% of Turkey’s population is Muslim and that religious homogeneity has been increasing reflected in their governments. The country still supports the secular division between church and state but cultural tensions remain as the local intellectuals promote western values and conservatives favor Hanafite (of Sunny Islam) law. Those tensions could easily result in political volatility or social unrest in the years ahead.
Turkey has a relatively low median age and life expectancy. The population is expected to grow by 25% between 2010 and 2050, while the global population grows by 34% during the same time period. Since all those people will purchase food, clothing, shelter and energy, that population growth will drive much of their economic expansion as well. The country has an active import / export sector but maintains a persistent trade deficit currently, putting downward pressure on the Turkish Lira currency.
The age distribution in Turkey is almost identical to that of the world as a whole. In other words, their proportion of young people, working people and retired people is similar to the global equivalents. However, as their population develops further, Turkey will establish a “youth deficit” over time. Fertility rates tend to be inversely correlated with education so social development tends to reduce birth rates. And finally, consumer spending accounts for 71% of gross domestic product (GDP) which is typical for countries running a trade deficit.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Turkey at conferences and business events in Istanbul, Ankara or other Turkish destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Turkey above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
All of the countries covered by the economic forecasting model are ranked below. They are each linked to the country’s respective page, so please feel free to explore other countries you might be interested in.
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I really do not understand how countries such as Argentina, Nigeria and Greece are more politically stable than Turkey. The current government has won the last 8 elections with a massive gap to the oppositions. IS THIS WHAT YOU REALLY THINK OR IS IT WHAT YOU WISH??
My model simply reflects the demographic age profile and the insights it suggests.