According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Colombia will enjoy strong growth between now and 2050. The country has a significant “youth bulge” (or baby boom) which will mature into an expanded working population in the years ahead. There are other factors affecting Colombia’s economy as well, including a developing South American continent, an expanding economy (and influence) in Brazil and a widening of the Panama Canal scheduled for completion in 2014.
Any time a country as a “youth bulge”, political volatility is sure to follow. Young people are generally underemployed and financially frustrated, so they seek change and protest the status quo. The political volatility will moderate as the years pass because the youth bulge is expected to disappear and actually reverse by 2050. But for at least the coming 10 or 15 years, Colombia could have periods of protest and social unrest.
Like most countries in South America, Colombia has a young median age. There are a lot of young people and the population is growing quickly. While that often leads to political volatility, it also spells economic growth for the years ahead. Expected population growth in Colombia is higher than Brazil or Argentina. Colombia will also benefit from the widening of the Panama Canal and the economic reforms being taken within their own country.
The interesting thing below is how the “youth bulge” is expected to completely reverse course by 2050, resulting in a relative “youth deficit” when compared with the rest of the world. That may result in slower economic growth far in the future but more immediately, it will result in a gradually more stable political environment. As a result, it is likely that the peace negotiations currently taking place will, at some point soon, result in a lasting peace. It may take 5 or 10 years but the shifting age profile definitely points to increased stability over time.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Colombia at conferences and business events in Bogota or other Colombian destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Colombia above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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