According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Pakistan will experience strong growth between 2010 and 2050, due in large part to an exploding population. The world population is expected to grow by 34% during that same time period but Pakistan’s population will swell by 58%. All of those people will buy food, shelter, energy and clothing as they live their lives. That spells economic expansion, especially because consumer spending accounts for 84% of Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Social unrest is very highly correlated with “youth bulges” (or baby booms) and Pakistan has the second youngest overall population of all the countries we analyzed through this model. In other words, Pakistan has a huge baby boom currently and those young people are generally underemployed and financially frustrated. That dramatically increases the odds that the country will experience political volatility and social unrest.
Pakistan has a median age of just 21 years. That’s the second lowest of all the countries we looked at, next to Nigeria. The big difference is that Nigeria has a life expectancy of 50 while Pakistan’s life expectancy is 65. That means the median age in Pakistan is driven primarily by their massive youth bulge. Families are having a lot of children and as a result, the population is expected to grow by 58% by 2050. The country also has a limited import / export sector and has a trade deficit overall, putting downward pressure on the Pakistan rupee.
As noted above, Pakistan can expect a lot of political volatility and social unrest in the years ahead. But if you look at the graphic below, you will notice that the country’s baby boom is expected to moderate significantly by 2050. That means the political volatility will also moderate over time, but keep in mind that those protesting are usually teenagers or in their early twenties. That means there is a 15 to 20-year time lag between a reduction in the fertility rate and the resulting decrease in volatility.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Pakistan at conferences and business events in Karachi, Islamabad or other Pakistani destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Pakistan above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
All of the countries covered by the economic forecasting model are ranked below. They are each linked to the country’s respective page, so please feel free to explore other countries you might be interested in.
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Forecasting based on just quantitative values seems to be too skewed in the wrong direction. One has to take judgmental calls based on qualitative ground realities. For example, Afghanistan is not even considered in your study, although one can see a major development in Afghanistan and all it’s neighbouring countries, like, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Russia and China. The SCO Summit immediately after the exit of US and allied forces from Afghanistan is triggering a domino effect of development activities in Afghanistan backed by BRI and CPEC initiatives of China to fund rail, road and communication network in Afghanistan followed by increased trading activities with all the neighbouring countries.